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Table 2 Full Log10 posterior estimates (and high posterior densities, HPD) of natural parameters obtained with MsVar for three different putative generation times and for four historical events that may have affected G. bravoana demography (see text)

From: Island survivors: population genetic structure and demography of the critically endangered giant lizard of La Gomera, Gallotia bravoana

  100 years 500 years 2500 years 10000 years
  95% HPD   95% HPD   95% HPD   95% HPD
Mean Lower Upper Mean Lower Upper Mean Lower Upper Mean Lower Upper
G = 5 years             
Ancient effective population size (N 1 ) 4.86 3.97 5.74 4.86 3.97 5.74 4.87 3.98 5.75 4.86 3.98 5.75
Current effective population size (N 0 ) 1.17 0.08 2.17 1.16 0.05 2.16 1.17 0.07 2.16 1.16 0.06 2.17
Time since effective population size change (X a ) 3.10 2.04 4.07 3.09 2.05 4.08 3.10 2.05 4.08 3.09 2.03 4.07
Mutation rate (μ) -3.17 -3.65 -2.69 -3.17 -3.65 -2.69 -3.17 -3.65 -2.69 -3.17 -3.65 -2.69
G = 10years             
Ancient effective population size (N 1 ) 4.85 3.97 5.74 4.86 3.99 5.76 4.86 3.98 5.74 4.86 3.97 5.75
Current effective population size (N 0 ) 1.14 0.01 2.16 1.14 0.02 2.16 1.13 0.02 2.14 1.14 9E 04 2.16
Time since effective population size change (X a ) 3.37 2.29 4.37 3.37 2.29 4.37 3.36 2.29 4.36 3.37 2.28 4.38
Mutation rate (μ) -3.17 -3.65 -2.69 -3.17 -3.65 -2.69 -3.17 -3.65 -2.68 -3.17 -3.65 -2.69
G = 60years             
Ancient effective population size (N 1 ) 4.84 3.96 5.72 4.84 3.98 5.73 4.84 3.96 5.72 4.84 3.96 5.73
Current effective population size (N 0 ) 1.09 -0.04 2.13 1.08 -0.06 2.13 1.09 -0.08 2.13 1.09 -0.06 2.13
Time since effective population size change (Xa) 4.10 3.00 5.11 4.09 2.99 5.10 4.10 2.99 5.12 4.09 2.99 5.11
Mutation rate (μ) -3.16 -3.64 -2.68 -3.16 -3.64 -2.68 -3.16 -3.64 -2.68 -3.16 -3.63 -2.67