Island survivors: population genetic structure and demography of the critically endangered giant lizard of La Gomera, Gallotia bravoana

Table 2 Full Log10 posterior estimates (and high posterior densities, HPD) of natural parameters obtained with MsVar for three different putative generation times and for four historical events that may have affected G. bravoana demography (see text)

	100 years			500 years			2500 years			10000 years
		95% HPD			95% HPD			95% HPD			95% HPD
	Mean	Lower	Upper	Mean	Lower	Upper	Mean	Lower	Upper	Mean	Lower	Upper
G = 5 years
Ancient effective population size (N ₁)	4.86	3.97	5.74	4.86	3.97	5.74	4.87	3.98	5.75	4.86	3.98	5.75
Current effective population size (N ₀)	1.17	0.08	2.17	1.16	0.05	2.16	1.17	0.07	2.16	1.16	0.06	2.17
Time since effective population size change (X _a)	3.10	2.04	4.07	3.09	2.05	4.08	3.10	2.05	4.08	3.09	2.03	4.07
Mutation rate (μ)	-3.17	-3.65	-2.69	-3.17	-3.65	-2.69	-3.17	-3.65	-2.69	-3.17	-3.65	-2.69
G = 10years
Ancient effective population size (N ₁)	4.85	3.97	5.74	4.86	3.99	5.76	4.86	3.98	5.74	4.86	3.97	5.75
Current effective population size (N ₀)	1.14	0.01	2.16	1.14	0.02	2.16	1.13	0.02	2.14	1.14	9E 04	2.16
Time since effective population size change (X _a)	3.37	2.29	4.37	3.37	2.29	4.37	3.36	2.29	4.36	3.37	2.28	4.38
Mutation rate (μ)	-3.17	-3.65	-2.69	-3.17	-3.65	-2.69	-3.17	-3.65	-2.68	-3.17	-3.65	-2.69
G = 60years
Ancient effective population size (N ₁)	4.84	3.96	5.72	4.84	3.98	5.73	4.84	3.96	5.72	4.84	3.96	5.73
Current effective population size (N ₀)	1.09	-0.04	2.13	1.08	-0.06	2.13	1.09	-0.08	2.13	1.09	-0.06	2.13
Time since effective population size change (Xa)	4.10	3.00	5.11	4.09	2.99	5.10	4.10	2.99	5.12	4.09	2.99	5.11
Mutation rate (μ)	-3.16	-3.64	-2.68	-3.16	-3.64	-2.68	-3.16	-3.64	-2.68	-3.16	-3.63	-2.67

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