MSVAR estimates of changes in effective population size. Quantification and timing of a population bottleneck in C. ernesti-augustii. A) Estimated changes in effective population size, with the current Ne (N0 = 1,862) smaller than the ancestral Ne (N1 = 16,000). B) The posterior distribution of the time since the population bottleneck. The median is 10,715 years ago (arrow), coinciding with a major climatic change that took place at the end of the Pleistocene (ca. 10,000 ya) There is no evidence of a population bottleneck closer to period of Mayan deforestation (ca. 1,000 ya).