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Table 3 Predictive Probabilities

From: Fully Bayesian tests of neutrality using genealogical summary statistics

Data Set

Demographic Model

T

t MRCA

D F

I c

C n

B 1

MV

Brown bear

(d-loop)

Constant

0.205

0.164

0.128

0.307

0.844

0.900

0.219

 

Exponential growth

0.382

0.374

0.209

0.305

0.832

0.886

0.284

HRSV

(g gene)

Constant

0.045

0.034

0.044

0.835

0.851

0.865

0.330

 

Exponential growth

0.294

0.335

0.121

0.805

0.845

0.857

0.463

Dengue-4

(E gene)

Constant

0.036

0.004*

0.001*

0.434

0.401

0.581

0.027*

 

Exponential growth

0.219

0.170

0.013*

0.449

0.349

0.498

0.128

Human influenza A

(HA)

Constant

0.040

0.101

<0.001*

0.951

0.392

0.393

0.024*

 

Exponential growth

0.085

0.381

0.001*

0.916

0.427

0.438

0.018*

  1. Univariate and multivariate posterior predictive p-values for summary statistics on each of the example data sets. Significant departures (univariate: p B <α/2 or p B > 1 - α/2; multivariate: p B <α for α = 0.05) from neutrality are marked (*). Significant departures on the best fitting model for each data set are in bold.