Figure 4

Predicted and observed segregation in a real breeding population and estimated posterior probability of obtaining progenies fulfilling selection criteria. (a) Predicted segregation of harvest time and fruit weight in a population derived from the cross ‘Akiakari’ × ‘Taihaku’. (b and c) Segregation of harvest time and fruit weight observed in 2010 and 2011. Data were measured on continuous scales (i.e., they were not values of latent variables estimated from ordinal categorical data). (d) Posterior probability of obtaining progenies fulfilling the harvest time criterion (i.e., earlier than ‘Kosui’) under the cross ‘Akiakari’ × ‘Taihaku’. Vertical lines represent realized proportions observed in 2010 (red line) and 2011 (blue line). (e) Posterior probability of obtaining progenies fulfilling the fruit weight criterion (i.e., larger than ‘Kosui’) under the cross ‘Akiakari’ × ‘Taihaku’. Vertical lines represent realized proportions observed in 2010 (red line) and 2011 (blue line).